Now that the dust has settled, let's take a look at what the Selection Committee has given us for the inaugural College Football Playoff.
(1) Alabama will take on (4) Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl while (2) Oregon will face (3) Florida State in the Rose Bowl. Those two semifinal matchups may be the best possible outcomes in terms of football and storylines for the first go of the CFP. The brand recognition is off the charts and I'm sure that many casual fans will be thrilled with these matchups. I am not a big Ohio State fan but as much as I hate to admit it, the committee got this one right...based on what they were given/presented to us as criteria for selection. It was also a thrill to see CFP Committee chair Jeff Long (AD at Arkansas) live on television explaining the process to the nation. That transparency is important and it also provides legitimacy to this whole deal while setting a clear set of expectations for future versions of the CFP. That being said, there are many in Fort Worth and Waco who will be complaining all the way to next September. I believe that both sides have fair gripes and could have been the fourth team in just as easily as Ohio State. So, let's vent.
Starting with Ohio State: What Ohio State has done with three different quarterbacks this season has been nothing short of impressive. It's hard enough when you lose one Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback (Braxton Miller) but to lose another (J.T. Barrett) and still end up winning the Big Ten is quite the feat. Regardless of what the committee says, I believe the Buckeyes got a huge boost from their 59-0 pasting of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. I don't believe their "body of work" (the catchphrase that has been introduced to the college football lexicon this year) was what got them in. I wonder if Ohio State hadn't been as impressive against Wisconsin, would they have been invited to the big boy table. I know everyone says it's about the "body of work" but the human element naturally lends itself to being a bit swayed by that last impression. Plus, Ohio State was number six in the most recent ranking heading into Championship Weekend. I understand that a win doesn't necessarily hold serve like it does in the poll but I'm not sure about this. Ohio State was on the outside looking in the entire time and then manages to jump to number four in the end. TCU falls from three to six. Baylor sits at five. Based on all we have seen, it's just very hard for me to believe that Ohio State was rewarded for their body of work and not just on that last impression in the Big Ten Championship Game. That being said, Ohio State's body of work does look pretty solid. Their strength of schedule (45th) was the highest among the three teams fighting for that last spot (TCU 53rd; Baylor 59th). Ohio State also has a 7-1 record against the Top 60. That's a pretty nice body of work but their loss to Virginia Tech, even though it was in September, is still a sizable blemish. Of the three teams in question, Ohio State's loss is easily the worst. We are talking about a Virginia Tech team that lost to Wake Forest 6-3...in overtime. Even worse, that loss was at home in "The Horseshoe." Not exactly a completely forgivable slip-up for a playoff team.
Let's move on to TCU: The Horned Frogs were an impressive 11-1. Their strength of schedule was 53rd and they had a 6-1 record against the Top 60. TCU also had the best points-per-game differential in the country, beating its opponents by an average of 26.5 PPG. Further enhancing the Horned Frogs case is the fact that their loss (at Baylor) was easily the best among the three teams in question despite the fact that TCU blew a 21-point lead in that game. Losing to the #5 team in the country by three isn't the worst blemish on your record. TCU gets hurt by the fact that they were declared co-champions of the Big XII. This hurts because the reality of the situation is the Baylor beat them head-to-head so anyone who exhibits the slightest bit of common sense would tell you that the Horned Frogs are not the co-champions of anything. That being said, if you've watched them play at any point over the last month and a half, you would be hard-pressed to find a better football team in the country, Alabama included. Also, how does your "body of work" put you at #4 and then #3 for a good chunk of the rankings and then all of a sudden drop you to #6?
That brings us to Baylor: Baylor was 5-1 against the Top 60 and had a strength of schedule that ranked 59th, not terrible numbers but a bit short in comparison to both Ohio State and TCU. The Bears also strengthen their argument with the reality that they are the Big XII Champions. They beat TCU head-to-head. It's as simple as that. The "human element" of this whole thing should have been able to see right through the Big XII and Commissioner Bob Bowlsby's declaration of "co-champions." Baylor also plays a style of offensive football that would be very attractive to the television networks and the casual fans. They were second in Division 1-A (or FBS) to TCU in points-per-game differential, outscoring their opponents by an average of 24.7 PPG. Their one loss (at West Virginia) was not devastating as one might think. Yes, West Virginia wrapped up at 7-5, fading down the backstretch with losses in three of their last four games. However, they played Alabama tough on national television, played TCU and Kansas State within one score, and battled Texas in the midst of the Longhorns' hot streak. The thing that hurts Baylor (besides the whole co-champions nonsense) is their soft non-conference schedule, ranked the worst in the nation. Playing SMU, Northwestern State, and Buffalo in your non-conference slate when the CFP committee made it clear there would be a premium value placed on non-conference matchups was a huge mistake for the Bears and something they need to look into in the future. However, I would like to point out that the SEC never gets punished for playing cupcakes.
After poring after the numbers, you really could make a case for any of these three teams to be in that fourth spot. At the end of the day, it pains me to say it, but the committee did get it right. Ohio State's resume has the fewest holes and the Buckeyes were rewarded accordingly.
I do have one other concern though. I understand the concept of ranking the teams regardless of record but I just can't justify Florida State not being number one. It doesn't matter how you slice it, the bottom line is that the Seminoles have beaten everyone in front of them and they are the ONLY undefeated team in the country. Whether you like them or not, that is fact. If they're the only undefeated team in the country, then how are they not number one? Alabama and Oregon are strong but they have flaws. There is no clearly dominant team this year like Miami in 2001 or Alabama in 2009 or even Florida State last year. Nick Saban has put together another impressive squad in Tuscaloosa but they certainly didn't look dynamite in the Iron Bowl. Auburn moved the ball at will and Ole Miss certainly didn't have a problem putting points on the board either. Alabama is very good. I'm not arguing that. They also may very well be the number one team in the country but the fact remains that they did not win all of their games and should not be rewarded as such.
All things considered, if this is the biggest gripe we have with this year's CFP field then kudos to the committee. A job well done in Year One. Can't wait to see how this all plays out on the field. Needless to say, I will be rooting for whomever comes out the Oregon/Florida State game. No doubt about it.
I'll save my "Why does the SEC never get grief for playing cupcakes" and my "Why would the Big XII actually declare co-champions" rants for another time.
-Meech
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Florida State: Playoffs?.....Florida: The "Interesting" Dismissal of Will Muschamp - 12/4/14
1. We are less than one week away from finding out which four teams will be playing in the inaugural College Football Playoff. There is wild excitement across the college football nation. However, for many, the tension is also palpable. I recall pundits arguing for years that a playoff would rid college football of controversy in deciding its national championship. I also recall many of my friends arguing the same point. I have always maintained that you can't rid Division 1-A (I still refuse to call it FBS.) of controversy without a large-scale playoff similar to the one they use at the 1-AA (FCS) level. The only thing a playoff would do is change the topic or focus of the controversy. Instead of arguing who the second-best team in the country was, we would all be arguing about who the fourth or fifth best team in the country was. The CFP was supposed to be similar to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee in men's basketball. The "human element" was going to put everyone at ease and replace the BCS computers. Yet here we are with just one week left before the CFP is finalized and we have a realistic possibility that the only undefeated team in the country could be on the outside looking in.
This week, 10-1 TCU leapfrogged the defending national champions, 12-0 Florida State. FSU has had an interesting stay in the CFP rankings. In Weeks 10 & 11, they were #2, trailing Mississippi State. Week 12 saw Oregon jump ahead of the 'Noles. Week 13 saw Alabama take the top spot and Oregon retain its hold on #2. Now, with a win over Texas (6-6), TCU has jumped to #3. FSU, despite beating rival Florida (6-5) has dropped to #4. Ohio State has jumped up to #5 despite losing their second starting quarterback of the season to injury. Baylor sits at #6 with a big game against #9 Kansas State this weekend. Arizona and Michigan State are very much in the hunt as well. Looking at the patterns of the committee, it is actually realistic to envision some scenarios in which Florida State could win the ACC Championship and still be left out in the cold.
Seriously, let's think about that. For starters, Florida State beats Georgia Tech in the ACC Title Game, but not convincingly. That would mean either a late 4th quarter comeback, a large lead that was nearly lost, or a win that simply wasn't dominant despite leading the whole way. Regardless, FSU would be 13-0. Now let's say that Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game with its third-string quarterback. Does the committee see that Ohio State is stronger than they think and discount the injuries to both Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett? What if Arizona knocks off Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game? Do two wins over Oregon, including one in Eugene, give Arizona enough juice with the selection committee to warrant inclusion? What if Baylor really piles it on Kansas State and TCU easily handles Iowa State? Considering how tightly TCU and Baylor played each other earlier this season, combined with the aforementioned results this weekend, does the Big XII make a case to have both teams included in the CFP? There's also Alabama and Oregon. If they win their conference title games, there is no doubt they are in. If one of them ends up falling, the CFP will be in flux to say the very least.
Now, I understand that a record can be deceiving. Games can be won or lost in a variety of ways. Schedules can vary in strength. No two games look the same when weighed against one another. I understand this from experience. Over the last five years at MHS, we have been quite fortunate to have the run of success that we have: five straight state championship appearances, two titles in a row (looking to make it a third this weekend). We have won some games pretty convincingly and not been on the losing side often (52-7 since 2010). Every now and again I think back to that 2010 team. That squad started 2-4 before running off five straight wins to sneak into that state finals before falling to Randolph 19-0. No one remembers how we squeaked by, sneaked in, or managed to win any of those games. All they remember is that we won them. Then I think about this year's squad. We have not blistered opponents quite the way we did over the previous two seasons (outscoring our opponents by nearly 600 points combined) but the only thing that matters is that the defending state champions continue to win games...just like Florida State. Until someone actually knocks you down, you are still the king of the mountain. What an injustice it would be if Florida State were to win all of its games and yet be denied the opportunity to defend its crown.
All that being said, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule and Florida State has beaten them all, 28 in a row as a matter of fact. It's not like the ACC is the Sun Belt. Give the defending champs some credit here. They may not always be pretty but the 'Noles find ways to win games. And at the end of the day, isn't winning the bottom line in the business of major college football?
2. Speaking of which, that brings me to the Florida head coaching gig. Colorado State head coach Jim McElwain has reached an agreement to become the next head coach of the Gators. McElwain appeared to be the top target from the moment Will Muschamp was dismissed. McElwain has some history in the SEC, working as Nick Saban's offensive coordinator from 2008 to 2011. He and the Crimson Tide were renowned for their offensive balance. In 2011, on their way to a national championship, Alabama was the only SEC team to average both 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game. McElwain also made quick work of turning around the Colorado State program. The Rams currently sit at 10-2 and have won 16 of their last 20 games. CSU lost 27 of 36 games before McElwain was hired in 2012. McElwain appears to check all the boxes laid out by Florida AD Jeremy Foley: head coaching experience (a must after Muschamp), several high-level assistant jobs, offensive philosophy and resume (CSU currently ranks 13th in the nation in total offense), and time spent coaching in the SEC.
This all seems to add up to a good hire for Florida. But as I read on, I keep thinking about the strange circumstances surrounding this whole thing. Usually when a coach is on his way out, there are countless rumors and groans from alumni (i.e. Brady Hoke at Michigan), epic clashes with the media surrounding the team (i.e. Bo Pelini at Nebraska), or billboards, websites, and television ads galore (i.e. Ron Zook at Florida in 2005 before Urban Meyer came aboard). That just didn't seem to be the case this time around in "The Swamp."
Will Muschamp took the Gators to the Sugar Bowl in his second season after replacing Urban Meyer. It looked like the Gators were trending upward after a 7-6 debut season for Muschamp in 2011. The bottom fell out though in 2013, as the Gators stumbled to a 4-8 record, their worst finish since 1979. Muschamp's offenses never got off the ground and this year's version ranked 109th in the nation in total offense. From an outside perspective, despite his failures in the win column, there was not a lot of overall negativity surrounding Muschamp. Even those vehemently calling for his dismissal seemed to be doing so without the usual vitriol. When Florida AD Jeremy Foley finally let Muschamp go, he said things such as:
"I will be forever grateful to Will and his staff for their unwavering commitment to the University of Florida and the mission of our athletic program. He will be missed by everyone in our athletic department - from the people that worked in his office to the people that painted the fields. Will knew everyone and they knew him and everyone in the building loved working with him. Will is as fine a man as you will ever meet, and I will always cherish our relationship with him and his family."
Those are pretty powerful words from Foley. You always hear the athletic director talk about the positive influence a coach had on the kids and the program but you don't see an AD cut to the core of the issue so openly like Foley did. Foley is not a typical AD either. He is well-respected in practically every football circle out there and, by all accounts, an absolute joy to work for. Still, it's uncharacteristic to see an administrator so openly distraught about having to fire an employee.
I keep searching for more negativity in the never-ending internet world and nothing of consequence pops up. There were a few "Hire Dan Mullen" websites but otherwise the words uttered by Foley after Muschamp's dismissal seemed to be the consensus. Even upon his firing, there were few negative words written about him. Most journalists said some version of "great guy, just didn't win enough games" and then focused on where he would end up as a well-compensated defensive coordinator. In a strange way, it's kind of refreshing to see this. Although college football has become quite the business monolith, these are still human beings. Coaches have family obligations and essentially act as a father or guiding hand to the 100+ kids on their teams and are also responsible for plenty of support staff. Many outsiders don't realize that even office assistants and equipment staff can be removed by an incoming coach who wants to be surrounded by his own people. Despite that simple truth, many people throw negativity around as if these coaches don't matter or don't care. It amazes me that Muschamp's dismissal was handled so professionally by all involved: the AD, the AD's administration, the players, the assistant coaches, the media, and ultimately Muschamp himself. I understand that not all individuals are as grounded as Foley and Muschamp and that some firings are nowhere near as simple as this one, but I hope that more of these moves can be conducted in this manner in the future. It's a refreshing and humane way to deal with such matters.
- Meech
This week, 10-1 TCU leapfrogged the defending national champions, 12-0 Florida State. FSU has had an interesting stay in the CFP rankings. In Weeks 10 & 11, they were #2, trailing Mississippi State. Week 12 saw Oregon jump ahead of the 'Noles. Week 13 saw Alabama take the top spot and Oregon retain its hold on #2. Now, with a win over Texas (6-6), TCU has jumped to #3. FSU, despite beating rival Florida (6-5) has dropped to #4. Ohio State has jumped up to #5 despite losing their second starting quarterback of the season to injury. Baylor sits at #6 with a big game against #9 Kansas State this weekend. Arizona and Michigan State are very much in the hunt as well. Looking at the patterns of the committee, it is actually realistic to envision some scenarios in which Florida State could win the ACC Championship and still be left out in the cold.
Seriously, let's think about that. For starters, Florida State beats Georgia Tech in the ACC Title Game, but not convincingly. That would mean either a late 4th quarter comeback, a large lead that was nearly lost, or a win that simply wasn't dominant despite leading the whole way. Regardless, FSU would be 13-0. Now let's say that Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game with its third-string quarterback. Does the committee see that Ohio State is stronger than they think and discount the injuries to both Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett? What if Arizona knocks off Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game? Do two wins over Oregon, including one in Eugene, give Arizona enough juice with the selection committee to warrant inclusion? What if Baylor really piles it on Kansas State and TCU easily handles Iowa State? Considering how tightly TCU and Baylor played each other earlier this season, combined with the aforementioned results this weekend, does the Big XII make a case to have both teams included in the CFP? There's also Alabama and Oregon. If they win their conference title games, there is no doubt they are in. If one of them ends up falling, the CFP will be in flux to say the very least.
Now, I understand that a record can be deceiving. Games can be won or lost in a variety of ways. Schedules can vary in strength. No two games look the same when weighed against one another. I understand this from experience. Over the last five years at MHS, we have been quite fortunate to have the run of success that we have: five straight state championship appearances, two titles in a row (looking to make it a third this weekend). We have won some games pretty convincingly and not been on the losing side often (52-7 since 2010). Every now and again I think back to that 2010 team. That squad started 2-4 before running off five straight wins to sneak into that state finals before falling to Randolph 19-0. No one remembers how we squeaked by, sneaked in, or managed to win any of those games. All they remember is that we won them. Then I think about this year's squad. We have not blistered opponents quite the way we did over the previous two seasons (outscoring our opponents by nearly 600 points combined) but the only thing that matters is that the defending state champions continue to win games...just like Florida State. Until someone actually knocks you down, you are still the king of the mountain. What an injustice it would be if Florida State were to win all of its games and yet be denied the opportunity to defend its crown.
All that being said, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule and Florida State has beaten them all, 28 in a row as a matter of fact. It's not like the ACC is the Sun Belt. Give the defending champs some credit here. They may not always be pretty but the 'Noles find ways to win games. And at the end of the day, isn't winning the bottom line in the business of major college football?
2. Speaking of which, that brings me to the Florida head coaching gig. Colorado State head coach Jim McElwain has reached an agreement to become the next head coach of the Gators. McElwain appeared to be the top target from the moment Will Muschamp was dismissed. McElwain has some history in the SEC, working as Nick Saban's offensive coordinator from 2008 to 2011. He and the Crimson Tide were renowned for their offensive balance. In 2011, on their way to a national championship, Alabama was the only SEC team to average both 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game. McElwain also made quick work of turning around the Colorado State program. The Rams currently sit at 10-2 and have won 16 of their last 20 games. CSU lost 27 of 36 games before McElwain was hired in 2012. McElwain appears to check all the boxes laid out by Florida AD Jeremy Foley: head coaching experience (a must after Muschamp), several high-level assistant jobs, offensive philosophy and resume (CSU currently ranks 13th in the nation in total offense), and time spent coaching in the SEC.
This all seems to add up to a good hire for Florida. But as I read on, I keep thinking about the strange circumstances surrounding this whole thing. Usually when a coach is on his way out, there are countless rumors and groans from alumni (i.e. Brady Hoke at Michigan), epic clashes with the media surrounding the team (i.e. Bo Pelini at Nebraska), or billboards, websites, and television ads galore (i.e. Ron Zook at Florida in 2005 before Urban Meyer came aboard). That just didn't seem to be the case this time around in "The Swamp."
Will Muschamp took the Gators to the Sugar Bowl in his second season after replacing Urban Meyer. It looked like the Gators were trending upward after a 7-6 debut season for Muschamp in 2011. The bottom fell out though in 2013, as the Gators stumbled to a 4-8 record, their worst finish since 1979. Muschamp's offenses never got off the ground and this year's version ranked 109th in the nation in total offense. From an outside perspective, despite his failures in the win column, there was not a lot of overall negativity surrounding Muschamp. Even those vehemently calling for his dismissal seemed to be doing so without the usual vitriol. When Florida AD Jeremy Foley finally let Muschamp go, he said things such as:
"I will be forever grateful to Will and his staff for their unwavering commitment to the University of Florida and the mission of our athletic program. He will be missed by everyone in our athletic department - from the people that worked in his office to the people that painted the fields. Will knew everyone and they knew him and everyone in the building loved working with him. Will is as fine a man as you will ever meet, and I will always cherish our relationship with him and his family."
Those are pretty powerful words from Foley. You always hear the athletic director talk about the positive influence a coach had on the kids and the program but you don't see an AD cut to the core of the issue so openly like Foley did. Foley is not a typical AD either. He is well-respected in practically every football circle out there and, by all accounts, an absolute joy to work for. Still, it's uncharacteristic to see an administrator so openly distraught about having to fire an employee.
I keep searching for more negativity in the never-ending internet world and nothing of consequence pops up. There were a few "Hire Dan Mullen" websites but otherwise the words uttered by Foley after Muschamp's dismissal seemed to be the consensus. Even upon his firing, there were few negative words written about him. Most journalists said some version of "great guy, just didn't win enough games" and then focused on where he would end up as a well-compensated defensive coordinator. In a strange way, it's kind of refreshing to see this. Although college football has become quite the business monolith, these are still human beings. Coaches have family obligations and essentially act as a father or guiding hand to the 100+ kids on their teams and are also responsible for plenty of support staff. Many outsiders don't realize that even office assistants and equipment staff can be removed by an incoming coach who wants to be surrounded by his own people. Despite that simple truth, many people throw negativity around as if these coaches don't matter or don't care. It amazes me that Muschamp's dismissal was handled so professionally by all involved: the AD, the AD's administration, the players, the assistant coaches, the media, and ultimately Muschamp himself. I understand that not all individuals are as grounded as Foley and Muschamp and that some firings are nowhere near as simple as this one, but I hope that more of these moves can be conducted in this manner in the future. It's a refreshing and humane way to deal with such matters.
- Meech
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