1. We are less than one week away from finding out which four teams will be playing in the inaugural College Football Playoff. There is wild excitement across the college football nation. However, for many, the tension is also palpable. I recall pundits arguing for years that a playoff would rid college football of controversy in deciding its national championship. I also recall many of my friends arguing the same point. I have always maintained that you can't rid Division 1-A (I still refuse to call it FBS.) of controversy without a large-scale playoff similar to the one they use at the 1-AA (FCS) level. The only thing a playoff would do is change the topic or focus of the controversy. Instead of arguing who the second-best team in the country was, we would all be arguing about who the fourth or fifth best team in the country was. The CFP was supposed to be similar to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee in men's basketball. The "human element" was going to put everyone at ease and replace the BCS computers. Yet here we are with just one week left before the CFP is finalized and we have a realistic possibility that the only undefeated team in the country could be on the outside looking in.
This week, 10-1 TCU leapfrogged the defending national champions, 12-0 Florida State. FSU has had an interesting stay in the CFP rankings. In Weeks 10 & 11, they were #2, trailing Mississippi State. Week 12 saw Oregon jump ahead of the 'Noles. Week 13 saw Alabama take the top spot and Oregon retain its hold on #2. Now, with a win over Texas (6-6), TCU has jumped to #3. FSU, despite beating rival Florida (6-5) has dropped to #4. Ohio State has jumped up to #5 despite losing their second starting quarterback of the season to injury. Baylor sits at #6 with a big game against #9 Kansas State this weekend. Arizona and Michigan State are very much in the hunt as well. Looking at the patterns of the committee, it is actually realistic to envision some scenarios in which Florida State could win the ACC Championship and still be left out in the cold.
Seriously, let's think about that. For starters, Florida State beats Georgia Tech in the ACC Title Game, but not convincingly. That would mean either a late 4th quarter comeback, a large lead that was nearly lost, or a win that simply wasn't dominant despite leading the whole way. Regardless, FSU would be 13-0. Now let's say that Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game with its third-string quarterback. Does the committee see that Ohio State is stronger than they think and discount the injuries to both Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett? What if Arizona knocks off Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game? Do two wins over Oregon, including one in Eugene, give Arizona enough juice with the selection committee to warrant inclusion? What if Baylor really piles it on Kansas State and TCU easily handles Iowa State? Considering how tightly TCU and Baylor played each other earlier this season, combined with the aforementioned results this weekend, does the Big XII make a case to have both teams included in the CFP? There's also Alabama and Oregon. If they win their conference title games, there is no doubt they are in. If one of them ends up falling, the CFP will be in flux to say the very least.
Now, I understand that a record can be deceiving. Games can be won or lost in a variety of ways. Schedules can vary in strength. No two games look the same when weighed against one another. I understand this from experience. Over the last five years at MHS, we have been quite fortunate to have the run of success that we have: five straight state championship appearances, two titles in a row (looking to make it a third this weekend). We have won some games pretty convincingly and not been on the losing side often (52-7 since 2010). Every now and again I think back to that 2010 team. That squad started 2-4 before running off five straight wins to sneak into that state finals before falling to Randolph 19-0. No one remembers how we squeaked by, sneaked in, or managed to win any of those games. All they remember is that we won them. Then I think about this year's squad. We have not blistered opponents quite the way we did over the previous two seasons (outscoring our opponents by nearly 600 points combined) but the only thing that matters is that the defending state champions continue to win games...just like Florida State. Until someone actually knocks you down, you are still the king of the mountain. What an injustice it would be if Florida State were to win all of its games and yet be denied the opportunity to defend its crown.
All that being said, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule and Florida State has beaten them all, 28 in a row as a matter of fact. It's not like the ACC is the Sun Belt. Give the defending champs some credit here. They may not always be pretty but the 'Noles find ways to win games. And at the end of the day, isn't winning the bottom line in the business of major college football?
2. Speaking of which, that brings me to the Florida head coaching gig. Colorado State head coach Jim McElwain has reached an agreement to become the next head coach of the Gators. McElwain appeared to be the top target from the moment Will Muschamp was dismissed. McElwain has some history in the SEC, working as Nick Saban's offensive coordinator from 2008 to 2011. He and the Crimson Tide were renowned for their offensive balance. In 2011, on their way to a national championship, Alabama was the only SEC team to average both 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game. McElwain also made quick work of turning around the Colorado State program. The Rams currently sit at 10-2 and have won 16 of their last 20 games. CSU lost 27 of 36 games before McElwain was hired in 2012. McElwain appears to check all the boxes laid out by Florida AD Jeremy Foley: head coaching experience (a must after Muschamp), several high-level assistant jobs, offensive philosophy and resume (CSU currently ranks 13th in the nation in total offense), and time spent coaching in the SEC.
This all seems to add up to a good hire for Florida. But as I read on, I keep thinking about the strange circumstances surrounding this whole thing. Usually when a coach is on his way out, there are countless rumors and groans from alumni (i.e. Brady Hoke at Michigan), epic clashes with the media surrounding the team (i.e. Bo Pelini at Nebraska), or billboards, websites, and television ads galore (i.e. Ron Zook at Florida in 2005 before Urban Meyer came aboard). That just didn't seem to be the case this time around in "The Swamp."
Will Muschamp took the Gators to the Sugar Bowl in his second season after replacing Urban Meyer. It looked like the Gators were trending upward after a 7-6 debut season for Muschamp in 2011. The bottom fell out though in 2013, as the Gators stumbled to a 4-8 record, their worst finish since 1979. Muschamp's offenses never got off the ground and this year's version ranked 109th in the nation in total offense. From an outside perspective, despite his failures in the win column, there was not a lot of overall negativity surrounding Muschamp. Even those vehemently calling for his dismissal seemed to be doing so without the usual vitriol. When Florida AD Jeremy Foley finally let Muschamp go, he said things such as:
"I will be forever grateful to Will and his staff for their unwavering commitment to the University of Florida and the mission of our athletic program. He will be missed by everyone in our athletic department - from the people that worked in his office to the people that painted the fields. Will knew everyone and they knew him and everyone in the building loved working with him. Will is as fine a man as you will ever meet, and I will always cherish our relationship with him and his family."
Those are pretty powerful words from Foley. You always hear the athletic director talk about the positive influence a coach had on the kids and the program but you don't see an AD cut to the core of the issue so openly like Foley did. Foley is not a typical AD either. He is well-respected in practically every football circle out there and, by all accounts, an absolute joy to work for. Still, it's uncharacteristic to see an administrator so openly distraught about having to fire an employee.
I keep searching for more negativity in the never-ending internet world and nothing of consequence pops up. There were a few "Hire Dan Mullen" websites but otherwise the words uttered by Foley after Muschamp's dismissal seemed to be the consensus. Even upon his firing, there were few negative words written about him. Most journalists said some version of "great guy, just didn't win enough games" and then focused on where he would end up as a well-compensated defensive coordinator. In a strange way, it's kind of refreshing to see this. Although college football has become quite the business monolith, these are still human beings. Coaches have family obligations and essentially act as a father or guiding hand to the 100+ kids on their teams and are also responsible for plenty of support staff. Many outsiders don't realize that even office assistants and equipment staff can be removed by an incoming coach who wants to be surrounded by his own people. Despite that simple truth, many people throw negativity around as if these coaches don't matter or don't care. It amazes me that Muschamp's dismissal was handled so professionally by all involved: the AD, the AD's administration, the players, the assistant coaches, the media, and ultimately Muschamp himself. I understand that not all individuals are as grounded as Foley and Muschamp and that some firings are nowhere near as simple as this one, but I hope that more of these moves can be conducted in this manner in the future. It's a refreshing and humane way to deal with such matters.
- Meech
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